Brent Oil Falls Below $90 to Lowest Since August on Peace Hopes

According to TradePulse, oil prices slid to their lowest levels since August on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, with ICE Brent briefly dipping below $90 per barrel as investors bet on diplomatic breakthroughs in both the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, deflating the geopolitical risk premium that has underpinned crude in recent weeks.

Key points

• Brent crude briefly fell below $90 per barrel for the first time since August; prices have surrendered almost $30 per barrel since the US midterm elections.
• The Trump administration reiterated its reluctance to launch new military strikes on Iran, while US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks are underway in Abu Dhabi.
• Persian Gulf tanker freight remains extreme: chartering a VLCC from the Gulf to China costs $72-74 million ($36-37 per barrel), some $20 per barrel above rates just outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's October crude imports hit a seven-month high of 42 million tonnes (9.9 million bpd), still 13% below year-earlier levels.

Peace hopes on two fronts fuel the oil selloff

Crude kept falling on Tuesday as the Trump administration once again signaled it sees no need for fresh military action against Iran. At the same time, US-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine opened in Abu Dhabi, leaving markets to gauge the odds of both major conflicts winding down soon.

The retreat has been steep. Crude has shed nearly $30 per barrel since the US midterm elections, unwinding much of the war premium built into prices this year.

Tanker rates say Hormuz risk has not gone away

Not every corner of the market is convinced the US-Iran war is effectively over. The cost of chartering a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to China has eased only marginally over the past two weeks, with current fixtures still coming in around $72-74 million ($36-37 per barrel).

The gap with nearby routes is stark: VLCC rates just outside Hormuz, in the US-controlled Gulf of Oman, are now $20 per barrel cheaper. Elsewhere, freight is normalizing fast — a US-to-China voyage now costs $45 million ($22.5 per barrel), down $35 million from a month ago.

Shipping's caution has clear roots. Iranian drones and missiles have struck at least 16 tankers in the Strait of Hormuz so far this month; only 11 of those incidents were logged by UKMTO.

China returns to the crude market

Demand signals are cushioning the slide. China's crude imports reached a seven-month high of 42 million tonnes (9.9 million bpd) in October, 13% below year-ago levels, as Saudi and Iraqi flows recovered and strong refining margins plus low product stocks lifted runs.

Russian barrels are meanwhile rerouting. The Agioi Fanendes, carrying 280,000 barrels of diesel from Primorsk, abandoned its voyage toward the US Atlantic Coast and is expected to head to Brazil instead, as legal uncertainty kept American buyers away despite the proposed US-Russia diesel deal.

US LNG exports hit record as power prices spike in Asia and Europe

US LNG feedgas demand climbed to a record 20.4 bcf/d earlier this week, with every export terminal running close to peak capacity. Cooler weather improved plant efficiency, and a $28/MMBtu spread between Henry Hub and Asian spot LNG is pulling cargoes across the Pacific.

Scarcity is biting downstream. Japan's spot power prices nearly doubled in November to ¥40 per kWh ($0.25/kWh), the highest since September 2022, after a nationwide cold snap cut utility LNG stocks by almost 11% to 1.92 million tonnes. European power prices surged above €600 per MWh as wind generation collapsed in a regional "Dunkelflaute" lull, just as LNG prices hover around $32 per MMBtu.

Drone attack halts Iraqi Kurdistan's Khor Mor gas field

Production at Khor Mor, the main natural gas field of Iraqi Kurdistan, was suspended after a drone struck an LPG tank, knocking out roughly 2.8 GW of power generation and triggering electricity and cooking-gas shortages across major Kurdish cities. In a rare move, the UAE Energy Ministry offered 1.87 million barrels of Saudi-origin crude for sale in a ship-to-ship transfer from the damaged Gem No. 2, the VLCC attacked in early October whose leaks washed oil onto parts of the UAE coastline.

US rig count climbs as gasoline dips below $4

Baker Hughes' weekly count put US oil and gas rigs at 604, up 10% year-on-year and the highest tally since May 2024, with the Permian Basin adding 22 rigs over the year.

At the pump, the average US gasoline price dipped below $4 per gallon for the first time since July, though it remains 19% above seasonal norms. Diesel stays stubbornly expensive at a national average of $6.15 per gallon.

Deal flow: Strathcona, QatarEnergy, ExxonMobil and BP

Canadian producer Strathcona Resources (TSO:SCR) agreed to buy heavy-oil producer Greenfire Resources for $2 billion, adding 34,000 bpd of steam-assisted gravity drainage production in northern Alberta. Qatar's QatarEnergy struck a deal with Chevron to take a 25% stake in the Walvis Basin PEL 82 block offshore Namibia, marking its entry into the African country.

ExxonMobil signed a preliminary agreement with Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA to explore investment opportunities, with a particular interest in the Petromonagas crude upgrader it previously operated. BP sold its entire 49.9% stake in its Indonesian retail joint venture AKR to local partner Corporindo, reacting to Jakarta's 2025 tightening of fuel import rules for private retailers. Germany's Evonik kept rejecting an increased takeover offer from BASF even after the two chief executives met over the weekend.

Coal exits delayed as LNG buildout advances

South Korea pushed back the closure of its 500 MW Taean 2 coal plant to March 2028, unable to bring replacement gas-fired capacity online in time. Bangladesh plans three new LNG terminals — one floating unit at Moheshkhali and two onshore facilities at Matarbari — to lift import capacity by another 1.6 BCf/d after repeated operational problems with its existing Excellence FSRU.

QatarEnergy is negotiating up to 2 mtpa of long-term LNG from NextDecade's permitted-but-unapproved Rio Grande Train 6, on top of the 10 mtpa it has already booked from Venture Global, Woodside and Cheniere. China, meanwhile, offered to expand LNG imports from Papua New Guinea after Taiwan closed its Port Moresby office and halted purchases — Taiwan had been the country's third-largest buyer.

Emissions on track for first annual drop in years

Global carbon emissions are forecast to fall 0.4% year-on-year to 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, with most of the decline coming from lower oil demand as China and other nations curb consumption. Coal emissions, however, are still set to rise 0.6%. Separately, Myanmar's military government is in talks with Washington to open its heavy rare-earth deposits to US companies, though civil war and sanctions make any major deal difficult.

Why it matters

The speed of the repricing — nearly $30 per barrel since the midterms — shows how much of this year's rally was pure war premium rather than physical tightness. If the Iran and Ukraine tracks deliver deals, freight markets already hint at normalization, with US-Gulf VLCC rates down $35 million in a month. Yet the $20-per-barrel gap around Hormuz and at least 16 tanker strikes this month show residual risk has not cleared. For consumers, sub-$4 gasoline offers relief while $6.15 diesel underscores persistent distillate tightness; for producers, a rig count at its highest level since May 2024 means US supply is still growing into a softer market.

FAQ

Why did oil fall to its lowest level since August? Brent briefly dipped below $90 per barrel after the Trump administration signaled no new strikes on Iran and US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks opened in Abu Dhabi, deflating the geopolitical risk premium. Crude is down almost $30 per barrel since the midterm elections.

How high are Persian Gulf tanker rates? Chartering a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to China runs about $72-74 million ($36-37 per barrel), roughly $20 per barrel above rates just outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman.

How much crude did China import in October? 42 million tonnes (9.9 million bpd), a seven-month high that is still 13% below year-ago levels, supported by recovering Saudi and Iraqi flows and strong refining margins.